The future of the shipbuilding industry
10.06.2016
The shipbuilding sector continues to follow the over economical trends. The experts from IHS Maritime & Trade identified 5 major development tendencies for the next couple of years.
The way in which the transfer of merchandises evolves directly influences the transport industry
As long as we are still facing the recession, the decrease of the price for resources is supposed to continue in the next 10 years. This aspect has already had repercussions on the transport costs of merchandises. On the other hand, the fact that the worldwide fleet capacity is anyway oversized makes it impossible to believe that a recovery of the transport prices will be soon reachable.
The only exception refers to the tanks which further register a constant evolution based on the transfer of more expensive oil related products.
IHS foresees an increase of the consumption of oil and oil related products with about +0.6% per year till 2040.
Economic stagnation of China has immediate repercussions on the shipbuilding industry
Apparently China seems to start experiencing the overall trend of recession. From an economical increase of 7% per year in 2014, IHS estimated 6% for 2016 and a sensitive regeneration in 2017.The tank transportation will be affected due to the decrease of the merchandises’ transfer. Before crisis, China used to import 70% of the iron ore and 20% of the coal ore, and both used to be transported on water. As long as the construction industry is affected, the need for metal structures decreased too. Even so China stopped internal mining works in favor of importing iron components of a better quality, this is still not going to relevantly influence the shipbuilding industry.
As a tendency it is expected that the big shipyards in Asia will survive in a more or less honorable manner, while the small ones are supposed to become vulnerable especially if they are specialized in offshore projects.
Lifting the embargo on Iran should have a positive impact on the shipbuilding industry
Reintegrating Iran on the oil exporters’ map will have a direct impact on the production of ships, necessary for transporting it.
Big Data
There are a lot of discussions around the idea of BIG Data in the shipbuilding industry. Implementing operational systems able to facilitate tactic decision-makings, choosing most optimal travel routes based on climate conditions, oil consumption and other risks that might appear during transportation seems to be a priority on the list of almost all shipbuilders.
The demographic changes will have a direct impact on the maritime industry
The global demographic changes and the development trends in different regions of the world will directly influence the shipbuilding sector in the next 10 years.
The positive evolution of the middle class in regions like Asia, Africa, and Latin America will determine an increase of the consumption with impact on the transport industry.
More updated and innovative technologies are wished for in the next period of time. Still the industry faces difficulties in finding the qualified personnel to develop them. Most of the workers in the sector are older people and there is almost no interest of the younger generation to get specialized in this field of activity.
The main explanation for it is that the shipbuilding industry faces a lower degree of innovation in comparison with other sectors, making it therefore less motivational. A good strategy might be investing in research and development areas.
